104 entries from "Porto"

Events that have probable outcomes can produce consistent results, if you can get the odds in your favor and there is a large enough sample size.

[If casinos have a 4.5% edge on their customers, it translates to netting 4.5% on all money wagered there with that probability.]

[Technical analysis is mathematical, whereas mental analysis is psychological and uses technical indicators as a proxy for collective behaviour patterns.]

Each trade contributes to the market's position at any given moment, which means that each trader, acting on a belief about what is high and what is low, contributes to the collective behavior pattern that is displayed at that moment.

At the moment he puts a trade on, and for as long as he chooses to stay in that trade, other traders will be participating in that market. They will be acting on their beliefs about what is high and what is low. At any given moment, some percentage of other traders will contribute to an outcome favorable to our trader’s edge, and the participation of some percentage of traders will negate his edge. There’s no way to know in advance how everyone else is going to behave and how their behavior will affect his trade, so the outcome of the trade is uncertain. The fact is, the outcome of every (legal) trade that anyone decides to make is affected in some way by the subsequent behavior of other traders participating in that market, making the outcome of all trades uncertain.

Since all trades have an uncertain outcome, then like gambling, each trade has to be statistically independent of the next trade, the last trade, or any trades in the future, even though the trader may use the same set of known variables to identify his edge for each trade. Furthermore, if the outcome of each individual trade is statistically independent of every other trade, there must also be a random distribution between wins and losses in any given string or set of trades, even though the odds of success for each individual trade may be in the trader’s favor.

[Casinos don't need to predict the future to create consistent results: as long as the odds are in their favour, a large enough sample size will give their edge a chance to work.]

[For any pattern to be "exactly" the same as in a previous moment, exactly the same traders would need to be present with the equivalent mental state; therefore virtually impossible. So every market moment is unique even though it may rhyme with a previous occurrence.]

[Being aware of uncertainty and probabilities doesn't automatically translate to profiting from it.]

When you've trained your mind to think in probabilities, it means you have fully accepted all the possibilities (with no internal resistance or conflict) and you always do something to take the unknown forces into account. Thinking this way is virtually impossible unless you've done the mental work necessary to "let go" of the need to know what is going to happen next or the need to be right on each trade. In fact, the degree by which you think you know, assume you know, or in any way need to know what is going to happen next, is equal to the degree to which you will fail as a trader.

Traders who have learned to think in probabilities are confident of their overall success, because they commit themselves to taking every trade that conforms to their definition of an edge. They don't attempt to pick and choose the edges they think, assume, or believe are going to work and act on those; nor do they avoid the edges that for whatever reason they think, assume, or believe aren't going to work. If they did either of those things, they would be contradicting their belief that the "now" moment situation is always unique, creating a random distribution between wins and losses on any given string of edges. They have learned, usually quite painfully, that they don't know in advance which edges are going to work and which ones aren't. They have stopped trying to predict outcomes. They have found that by taking every edge, they correspondingly increase their sample size of trades, which in turn gives whatever edge they use ample opportunity to play itself out in their favor, just like the casinos.

[Typical traders avoid predefining risk because "it isn't necessary", which implies they believe that they can and do know what will happen, as well as that they're correct.]

When you're convincing yourself that you're right, what you're saying to yourself is, "I know who's about to come into this market. I know what they believe about what is high or what is low. Furthermore, I know each individual's capacity to act on those beliefs (the degree of clarity or relative lack of inner conflict), and with this knowledge, I am able to determine how the actions of each of these individuals will affect price movement in its collective form a second, a minute, an hour, a day, or a week from now."

[Watching a market with no intention to trade is frustration-free because nothing is at stake.]

Choosing to 'skip over parts' is reading because reflects a choice about what's being processed.

If I've absorbed a point through my own lived experience or heard of it in another context, I'm still "reading" the idea as I recognize it well enough to skip over.

Cultural or self-inflicted frowning upon 'screens causing us to skim rather than read' creates pressure to do things 'properly', but the standard is not relevant: set your own objectives and make your own meaning.

Skipping is about feeling when you're not connected and moving to yes.

The average entrepreneur faces mild shame and maybe bankruptcy proceedings if their venture doesn’t work out, but even then they tend to maintain strong networks, saved money and cultural clout.

the greatest risk-takers in our society aren’t the tech bros on the cover of Wired Magazine, or the person with a Forbes profile.

A person who takes really hardcore risk might face starvation, destitution or deportation if their gamble doesn’t work.

[The Japanese may often speak vaguely because of historical norms where people were beheaded when not replying as expected.]

[There's often much activity in the final minutes of a trading session as computerized signals activate based on closing prices.]

[The open is a rudder for the day and provides a first clue about direction.]

[The more anxious, the earlier they want to trade.]

[Large orders at the open or close with the intention of affecting prices are called "morning attacks" and "night attacks"]

A trend reversal signal implies that the prior trend is likely to change, but not necessarily reversing. [A car's brake lights indicate an incoming slow or stop, but not whether it will continue or reverse afterwards.]

['hammer' in Japanese is takuri, which means "gauging water's depth by feeling for the bottom"]

[harami is an old Japanese word for pregnant and used to indicate a market 'losing breath'.]

['Belt-hold' comes from sumo wrestlings yorikiri, meaning 'to push the opponent out of the ring while holding onto their belt.']

Feed me up, Scotty!

RSS feeds for arbitrary websites, using CSS selectors.

Smartphones and being present

if you're trying to lose weight, you shouldn't carry cookies around in your pockets. And my phone is the bag of cookies in this metaphor.

Week 4: A respite from winter

[narrative analysis] is often about nailing down the one, most important story the market wants to trade and then tracking the evolution of that story.

It is very difficult for markets to hold two competing themes in its collective hivemind at once, and so the focus oscillates back and forth instead of going in two directions at once.

Just because a narrative is well-known, that does not mean it’s exhausted.

OpenAI's inflated valuation, as I understand it

[The only way for labs to capture enough value would be to either invent superintleligence or have a monopoly.]

[this study claims] that the length of tasks LLMs can complete is doubling every 7 months

[Models are currently commodified, but their labs are not priced as such.]

[If all 163 million working Americans bought a ChatGPT subscription at $20/month, it would provide 40 billion in annual revenue, which is only about 10% of what would
justify the current valuation based on more the traditional method using price to earnings ratio.]

AI Is the Market, and the Market Is the Government

The stock market has never been the economy - it’s really a reflection of what the economy dreams it could be in a world where share buybacks translate to meaningful productivity.

as AI swallows up more and more capital, it is both the economy and the stock market - and the government.

As long as portfolios are green, the electorate stays somewhat calm. The administration is effectively borrowing confidence from the AI bubble. Speculation has become governance.

The equity market believes the AI story overrides everything else. The gold market believes something is fundamentally breaking. They’re both reacting to the same underlying reality, but they just have different theories about what happens next.

Both gold and equities are surging because they’re hedging different kinds of collapse. Gold trades on fear of the system. AI trades on faith in the story. That both are rallying tells you something about where we are.

This is what it means to live in the United States of AI. Democracy as an asset class or something. For now, the line keeps going up. But speculation isn’t stability, and the permission government borrows from investors is never really its own.

Rudy Fraser on Blacksky, Mutual Aid & Reclaiming Social Media

[Everything we create has the Ubuntu ethics of "I am because you are" and "I want for you what you want for me".]

[Structure a benefit-orients mission statement like: "We help [customers] do/feel/be [benefit]."]

[Have an FAQ for busting objections.]

If the program doesn't rock your world, you'll get 100 percent of your money back, plus 20 percent for your trouble.

if a project evolves continuously, it may be worth tracking changes for who the audience is: it currently serves X, Y, and Z people, but new possibilities or priorities would trigger different messaging.

coming from the question "who can benefit while this is incomplete?"

yes to brag here is my stainless steel pan after making eggs!!!!

1. heat the pan on high and after a few minutes drop a few drops of water into the pan. if the water sizzles its not ready. if the water forms little beads and the beads easily dance across the pan, it’s ready!
2. turn the heat immediately to low.
3. drizzle some olive oil in and move the pan to coat. then drop in a small pat of butter, then gently add your already cracked eggs
4. DO NOT TOUCH for at least 30 seconds
5. gently put a spatula beneath to see if the egg has released from the pan yet. don’t rush it, this is key! when it’s ready to move it will move easily!

Trade 3: Short DOCS

Part of the reason a level might hold is that everyone believes it will hold—and so everyone puts their bids there. If you are using PhD quantum physics and homological mirror symmetry to find your tech levels, and nobody else in the known universe is, the levels you find just might not mean much in the market.

Volume spikes at a price extreme are super useful indicators that huge volume has gone through and the move was rejected or accepted by the market.

Trade 2: Short oil

People yelling “CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION!” in all caps are technically right but practically not very helpful. There often is no causation, but there is a ton of information contained in the correlation between assets.

If corn doubles in price, those who can switch to soy will do so, pushing the price of soy futures higher. If Doordash rips higher and now looks overvalued, investors looking for food delivery apps to invest in might buy GrubHub instead.

When a Canadian crude oil producer sells their crude, they receive USD. They need CAD to pay their employees and shareholders so after they sell their crude, they need to sell USDCAD to convert the proceeds. If the price of crude doubles, the crude producer will have twice as many USD to sell and this will weigh on USDCAD.

a bridge goes both ways

Interfaces are languages

Look at any modern software application: buttons are verbs, boxes with drop-shadows are nouns, API requests are grammatical structures. We’re not “using” interfaces so much as speaking them. When you pick up a new piece of software you can usually operate it but you lack fluency, you’re still learning the dialect.