[The Japanese may often speak vaguely because of historical norms where people were beheaded when not replying as expected.]

[There's often much activity in the final minutes of a trading session as computerized signals activate based on closing prices.]

[The open is a rudder for the day and provides a first clue about direction.]

[The more anxious, the earlier they want to trade.]

[Large orders at the open or close with the intention of affecting prices are called "morning attacks" and "night attacks"]

A trend reversal signal implies that the prior trend is likely to change, but not necessarily reversing. [A car's brake lights indicate an incoming slow or stop, but not whether it will continue or reverse afterwards.]

['hammer' in Japanese is takuri, which means "gauging water's depth by feeling for the bottom"]

[harami is an old Japanese word for pregnant and used to indicate a market 'losing breath'.]

['Belt-hold' comes from sumo wrestlings yorikiri, meaning 'to push the opponent out of the ring while holding onto their belt.']

Feed me up, Scotty!

RSS feeds for arbitrary websites, using CSS selectors.

Smartphones and being present

if you're trying to lose weight, you shouldn't carry cookies around in your pockets. And my phone is the bag of cookies in this metaphor.

Week 4: A respite from winter

[narrative analysis] is often about nailing down the one, most important story the market wants to trade and then tracking the evolution of that story.

It is very difficult for markets to hold two competing themes in its collective hivemind at once, and so the focus oscillates back and forth instead of going in two directions at once.

Just because a narrative is well-known, that does not mean it’s exhausted.

OpenAI's inflated valuation, as I understand it

[The only way for labs to capture enough value would be to either invent superintleligence or have a monopoly.]

[this study claims] that the length of tasks LLMs can complete is doubling every 7 months

[Models are currently commodified, but their labs are not priced as such.]

[If all 163 million working Americans bought a ChatGPT subscription at $20/month, it would provide 40 billion in annual revenue, which is only about 10% of what would
justify the current valuation based on more the traditional method using price to earnings ratio.]

AI Is the Market, and the Market Is the Government

The stock market has never been the economy - it’s really a reflection of what the economy dreams it could be in a world where share buybacks translate to meaningful productivity.

as AI swallows up more and more capital, it is both the economy and the stock market - and the government.

As long as portfolios are green, the electorate stays somewhat calm. The administration is effectively borrowing confidence from the AI bubble. Speculation has become governance.

The equity market believes the AI story overrides everything else. The gold market believes something is fundamentally breaking. They’re both reacting to the same underlying reality, but they just have different theories about what happens next.

Both gold and equities are surging because they’re hedging different kinds of collapse. Gold trades on fear of the system. AI trades on faith in the story. That both are rallying tells you something about where we are.

This is what it means to live in the United States of AI. Democracy as an asset class or something. For now, the line keeps going up. But speculation isn’t stability, and the permission government borrows from investors is never really its own.

Rudy Fraser on Blacksky, Mutual Aid & Reclaiming Social Media

[Everything we create has the Ubuntu ethics of "I am because you are" and "I want for you what you want for me".]

[Structure a benefit-orients mission statement like: "We help [customers] do/feel/be [benefit]."]

[Have an FAQ for busting objections.]

If the program doesn't rock your world, you'll get 100 percent of your money back, plus 20 percent for your trouble.

if a project evolves continuously, it may be worth tracking changes for who the audience is: it currently serves X, Y, and Z people, but new possibilities or priorities would trigger different messaging.

coming from the question "who can benefit while this is incomplete?"

yes to brag here is my stainless steel pan after making eggs!!!!

1. heat the pan on high and after a few minutes drop a few drops of water into the pan. if the water sizzles its not ready. if the water forms little beads and the beads easily dance across the pan, it’s ready!
2. turn the heat immediately to low.
3. drizzle some olive oil in and move the pan to coat. then drop in a small pat of butter, then gently add your already cracked eggs
4. DO NOT TOUCH for at least 30 seconds
5. gently put a spatula beneath to see if the egg has released from the pan yet. don’t rush it, this is key! when it’s ready to move it will move easily!

Trade 3: Short DOCS

Part of the reason a level might hold is that everyone believes it will hold—and so everyone puts their bids there. If you are using PhD quantum physics and homological mirror symmetry to find your tech levels, and nobody else in the known universe is, the levels you find just might not mean much in the market.

Volume spikes at a price extreme are super useful indicators that huge volume has gone through and the move was rejected or accepted by the market.

Trade 2: Short oil

People yelling “CORRELATION IS NOT CAUSATION!” in all caps are technically right but practically not very helpful. There often is no causation, but there is a ton of information contained in the correlation between assets.

If corn doubles in price, those who can switch to soy will do so, pushing the price of soy futures higher. If Doordash rips higher and now looks overvalued, investors looking for food delivery apps to invest in might buy GrubHub instead.

When a Canadian crude oil producer sells their crude, they receive USD. They need CAD to pay their employees and shareholders so after they sell their crude, they need to sell USDCAD to convert the proceeds. If the price of crude doubles, the crude producer will have twice as many USD to sell and this will weigh on USDCAD.

a bridge goes both ways

Interfaces are languages

Look at any modern software application: buttons are verbs, boxes with drop-shadows are nouns, API requests are grammatical structures. We’re not “using” interfaces so much as speaking them. When you pick up a new piece of software you can usually operate it but you lack fluency, you’re still learning the dialect.

Trade 1: Short XAUEUR

If real rates [(yield minus inflation)] are falling and negative, that generally means that central banks are enacting extremely loose policy.

[Increasing US rates and real rates is generally bad for gold.]

Positioning	Bull Market	Bear Market
Long and increasing	Very Bullish
Long and stable	Bullish
Long but falling	BEARISH
Short and stable		Bearish
Short and getting more short		Very bearish
Short but buying back		BULLISH

When the market anticipates an upcoming event, it will tend to position in the direction of least regret.

[If XAUEUR isn't available on your platform sell XAUUSD and buy EURUSD.]

[If I make this 1% better each time, it will be 1.62x better after 49 times].

[A good rule of thumb for new traders is to set the stop loss an average day range away from the entry. If I know nothing else about a security, I do this. Anything smaller risks to be stopped out by noise.]

[Add 3 pips to stop loss for slippage.]

[Position size is the output, not input.]

Fallacies of distributed computing

1. The network is reliable;
2. Latency is zero;
3. Bandwidth is infinite;
4. The network is secure;
5. Topology doesn't change;
6. There is one administrator;
7. Transport cost is zero;
8. The network is homogeneous;