Rosano / Journal

2 entries for Sunday, September 28, 2025

Trade 1: Short XAUEUR

If real rates [(yield minus inflation)] are falling and negative, that generally means that central banks are enacting extremely loose policy.

[Increasing US rates and real rates is generally bad for gold.]

Positioning Bull Market Bear Market
Long and increasing Very Bullish
Long and stable Bullish
Long but falling BEARISH
Short and stable Bearish
Short and getting more short Very bearish
Short but buying back BULLISH

When the market anticipates an upcoming event, it will tend to position in the direction of least regret.

[If XAUEUR isn't available on your platform sell XAUUSD and buy EURUSD.]

[If I make this 1% better each time, it will be 1.62x better after 49 times].

[A good rule of thumb for new traders is to set the stop loss an average day range away from the entry. If I know nothing else about a security, I do this. Anything smaller risks to be stopped out by noise.]

[Add 3 pips to stop loss for slippage.]

[Position size is the output, not input.]

Part of Brent Donnelly: 50 Trades in 50 Weeks.

Tagged: trading.

Fallacies of distributed computing

  1. The network is reliable;
  2. Latency is zero;
  3. Bandwidth is infinite;
  4. The network is secure;
  5. Topology doesn't change;
  6. There is one administrator;
  7. Transport cost is zero;
  8. The network is homogeneous;