[narrative analysis] is often about nailing down the one, most important story the market wants to trade and then tracking the evolution of that story.
It is very difficult for markets to hold two competing themes in its collective hivemind at once, and so the focus oscillates back and forth instead of going in two directions at once.
Just because a narrative is well-known, that does not mean it’s exhausted.
Tagged: trading.
OpenAI's inflated valuation, as I understand it
[The only way for labs to capture enough value would be to either invent superintleligence or have a monopoly.]
[this study claims] that the length of tasks LLMs can complete is doubling every 7 months
[Models are currently commodified, but their labs are not priced as such.]
[If all 163 million working Americans bought a ChatGPT subscription at $20/month, it would provide 40 billion in annual revenue, which is only about 10% of what would
justify the current valuation based on more the traditional method using price to earnings ratio.]
